More Poker ramblings and some lessons in hand reading...

Another one for my Poker friends: Did the $20 tournament @ Ebro on Saturday with John P. Sr; we talked strategy etc. on the drive up and one of the subjects was how hard it was to play (or at least profit) from pocket Aces in the first couple of rounds. You can't afford to let a bunch of people see the flop (AA is at least an 80% favorite against any other hand, but drops to 50% 3-way and 35% with 3 callers - 65% chance it WON'T win). Sure enough, I get AA the fifth hand (blinds 25/50). I am on the button and there have been some limpers ahead of me so I raise to 300. I get a caller from middle position and also from cutoff (1 player to my right). The cutoff player had been active but we had not seen him show down, so either he was loose aggressive, or he had been dealt some good hands earlier, but I was leaning LAG.

Flop comes 679 rainbow. It checks around to me and I bet 1200; both players call. I figure one of the 2 with A8suited or 88, and (since it was a cheap tournament) the other with overcards or an overpair (bigger than 9s). Because the board is pretty draw heavy, I did not put either of them on a set, although they could have been letting me bet their hand for them. The turn is a K, which probably hit some one calling with overcards. Check to me again, so I bet 2400 and get called by both of them. The river is a 10 (I get a little sick since any 8 just hit a straight). Middle position checks and the cutoff goes all-in. I replay the hand in my mind for about a minute looking for a reason to call with Top Pair, but had to go with my initial read and I folded. There is a saying that you should never put your tournament life on the line (especially early with a full table) with just top pair, because you are almost assuredly beat. Middle position practically snap-called, showing KK for a turned Set, and of course, the cutoff had J8 offsuit and won with the nut straight. I guess he felt he was priced in when middle position called.

I ran the numbers and assuming I raised from the button with a generous top 30% of hands, and the MP called with 15% (Gap principle - you need a much better hand to call than to raise), then his J8o was only about 22% equity. Sure enough with 850 in the pot, his 250 call was right about 4.3:1 or 23% pot odds. I guess I should have raised more, but it was fortunate that I did not, since the MP was not going anywhere with KK and I would have lost once the K came on the turn. As it was, I still had 1225 out of my initial 5000 (thank goodness I paid the dealer-toke of $5 for an extra 1500 in chips).

I got a little healthier when I pushed All-in the next hand with AQs and then had KK. I thought about raising normal and then going All-in if an A did not come on the flop, but decided to push all in and see if anyone would get tired of my action and decide to "fight-back" against my monster hand, because the action looked like I might have been on tilt from losing the AA hand.

Moral of the story is I did not give up. However, cards did not come I lost some close hands on the river and I wound up with 125 chips when the blinds were 100/200 with a 25 ante. I could not afford a full big blind and I was going to have to pay it next. I looked at my first card, it was the A of diamonds, so I knew I was going all-in and I did not look at the other one. There were 4 callers to my all in (really just 4 limpers, since I did not raise beyond the big blind). I flopped an A, and rivered and 8 as insurance, so I increased my stack 5 times. I doubled up several more times - mostly from the LAG player to my right (who cracked my aces) who kept calling my raises when it got back to him. I was always ahead when he called and the hands held up and I made it to the final table.

The real beauty of the story is that the LAG player was moved to my left when we re-drew for seats on the final table which set up the following hand. I was in the Big Blind with AKo, we were still a full table with 10 players - only top 5 would make the money payouts. The LAG was UTG+1 (second to act) and went all in with 66. It folded to me - by this time I had more chips than he did - and I snap called. I got a lovely K in the window (first card to be seen on the flop) which held up and I eliminated him in 10th place. I think I smiled for about 5 minutes straight, lol. The bubble eventually broke and I finished in the money in 5th ($54 for my $25 buy in) when I went all in UTG with 33 for 16000 with blinds at 2000/4000/300 ante and was called by the big blind who, I guess, felt he had to defend his 86o. A 6 came on the flop and I was out of there.

Blah

Brought home more from Biloxi than I bargained for, got my first cold in over 4 years.  My problem is that I thought it was just alergens kicked up by all the winds, so I did not do my usual pre-treat with zinc and xylitol.  Learning point, for sure...